Economic Good News

Increasing good signs with a caution

2009-09-01T15:14:00.000-07:00

The following recent data show positive signs for the economy;

July orders for big ticket items rose 4.9%
New home sales in July rose 9.6% over June, the fourth straight monthly increase
Inventories of durable goods fell in July, a signal that future increases in demand will lead to increases in manufacturing
In June, the volume of world trade increased by 2.5% indicating perhaps that world trade flows are bottoming out, a signal that economies are recovering
Manufacturing activity expanded in August ending a year and a half of declines.
The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 52.9%, its highest reading since June 2007.

While these signs bode well, the question on everyone's mind is whether the recovery is sustainable given the likely weak US consumer in the year ahead. Recessions are usually offset initially with government policies (the Stimulus Package and free flow of liquidity by the Fed) and then as these policies are wound down, the consumer picks up spending and the recovery continues. It is unlikely in the current environment that the US consumer will be as buoyant as in recent previous recoveries. The savings rate has already increased from negative territory to 4.2% in July and may continue to rise into the next year as consumers have become much more cautious.

To continue the recovery will necessitate spending from the rest of the world--and especially from China and India. Fortunately, there are signs that the consumer in both of these countries may in fact help a global recovery and in particular may help the US economy. Recent increases in the demand for laptops and flat panel TVs in Asia, the planned sale of IPhones in China as well as Harleys in India all show the potential of the consumer in Asia to pick up the slack of the US consumer in the recovery. Still, a slow recovery at best remains the consensus of economists.

Leading Indicators up for Fourth Straight Month

2009-08-20T08:48:00.000-07:00

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (see Link on the right hand side of the blog below) rose again in July for the fourth straight month. The rise was less than most expected, however, with consumer confidence still problematic. The recovery will be slow because the consumer is not in a position to lead the growth in spending necessary to boost growth beyond the effects of government stimulus. Between the second quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2009, household net worth fell 22%. This decline will have long term repercussions as consumers adjust their expectations of lifetime income downward and along with it adjust their saving upward.

The hope for the economy is that other recovering economies including India, China and surprisingly Japan, bolster US Exports and help pick up the slack.

Good news on the TED spread which is very close to zero right now (see Link below).

Positive earnings reports

2009-07-28T16:07:00.000-07:00

According to Thomson Reuters, 77% of the 184 S&P companies have reported earnings above expectations this quarter.

John Chiang California State Controller discusses the State's budget plight

2009-07-24T15:24:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of addressing a sold out audience along with California State Controller John Chiang at the behest of the Center for Investment and Wealth Management at UC Irvine’s Paul Merage School of Business. The subject was “Economic Outlook: Changing Strategies for Changing Times.” Kudos to John for touting transparency in government and for posting monthly financial reports around the 10th of each month, about the same time that the governor sees it at http://www.sco.ca.gov/. While both John and I addressed some sober realities, the signs that I have been describing on this blog point to stabilization of the economy by early 2010. The issue is that there will unfortunately be a prolonged period of slow growth before the economy returns to a position close to full employment.

A vibrant description of John Chiang's comments by Steve Churm from OC Metro follows below:

July 24, 2009 OC Metro

UC IRVINE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GRIM

By Steve Churm

Mr. IOU, California’s cash manager, State Controller John Chiang stood stoically as he listened to his introduction in front of an invitation-only business crowd at Irvine’s Pacific Club. The coat-and-tie gathering had come to hear from the man in the middle of the Golden State’s fiscal fiasco. Four hundred miles north, in the capitol, the governor and legislature were just hours from taking a vote to amend California’s budget and slash $15 billion in spending to close a staggering $26 billion shortfall. In February, left with no other options to keep the state from defaulting, Chiang took the unprecedented step to mail $3 billion in refund IOUs to taxpayers to keep California solvent. Stuck smack in the middle of the governor and state lawmakers, Chiang has been scrambling for months to maintain a $2.5 billion cushion that Wall Street requires to maintain the state’s shaky credit rating and remain fiscally viable as a government. He’s managed the precarious high-wire act so far. But the future is far, far from certain as Chiang soberly shared with the lunch crowd that quickly lost its appetite for dessert once he took the microphone. Scotch, straight up, not coffee, would have been more appropriate at that moment.The plain-speaking Chiang, the son of Taiwanese immigrants, warned that next year could be “dramatically worse” without clear solutions and real courage from Sacramento to make tougher and more painful decisions. Even then, the road to recovery, and the prospect of California operating again in the black, is bleak in the near term. Erasing any doubts of a swift rebound, Dean Andrew Policano from UC Irvine preceded Chiang and told the assembled that it would be 2013 (yes, 2013 … not next year or 2011) before California would see full employment again and a sustained recovery. And when the economy does bounce back, Policano, dean of the Paul Merage School of Business, predicted that Californians could look forward to some combination of higher taxes, higher interest rates and higher inflation.

Many signs point to stabilizing economy

2009-07-23T15:57:00.000-07:00

Reports today from the housing market showed an increase in home sales for the third consecutive month. Inventories of unsold homes fell to 9.4 months compared to 11 months in May, 2008. These signals suggest stabilization in the housing market.

Also, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now increased for three consecutive months providing additional support that the economy will hit bottom later this year.

Finally, check the TED spread on the right hand side of the blog and you will see that the financial markets are showing signs of strength as well.

Signs of recovery mount

2009-06-25T16:19:00.001-07:00

There has been less need to post of late because the media has been providing coverage of mounting evidence that the recovery is on the way. If you consult the indexes on the right hand side of this blog you will find that the TED spread has continued to narrow indicating that financial markets are now almost back to normal levels and are providing the liquidity necessary for growth. Also, the Leading Economic Indicators are also up and are signalling that the bottom is in sight.

Other positive signs: durable goods orders rose and new home prices solidified in May, both indicating that the downturn in the economy is slowing.

Finally, the Federal Reserve decided against adding further stimulus through an expansion in its program to buy Treasury bonds. This action shows that the Fed feels confident that while the economy is not out of the woods yet, further stimulation is not necessary at this time.

Market reacts to continuing good signs

2009-06-01T17:59:00.001-07:00

The stock market rose today based on several signs: The Institute for Supply Management indexes show a slowing in the contraction in the manufacturing sector indicating that the downsizing is coming to a close. In addition, the Commerce Department reported that personal spending fell at only .1 percent in April while personal income climbed .5%, primarily due to increases in unemployment insurance benefits and Social Security payments associated with the stimulus plan.

Several sectors of the economy are now experiencing or are expecting increased demand. For example, Alcoa, Inc. is receiving increased interest in lightweight metals and is concerned that they will not be ready to fill orders due to low inventory levels.

Surge in Consumer Confidence Bodes Well

2009-05-26T15:16:00.000-07:00

An increasing number of signs are emerging that bode well for a turnaround. One of the most critical is Conference Boards's Consumer Confidence Index which rose significantly in April after a solid gain in March.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

Leading Indicators are Turning

2009-05-21T10:07:00.000-07:00

The Conference Board released its index of Leading Economic Indicators for April and reported that the index increased 1%. The index can be followed in the Indicators to Watch section of the blog on the right hand side below. While economists are cautious not to make conclusions about trends from one data point, this increase in the index is the largest increase since November 2005 and bodes well for a bottoming out of the economy. Generally, a change in the trend movement in the index indicates that a turn in the economy will follow 3 - 6 months in the future.

Tatum Survey of Business Conditions

2009-05-14T14:00:00.000-07:00

Alan Sellers from SAIL Venture Partners forwarded to me the results of the Tatum Survey of nearly 1000 executives that suggests that the recession is ending and recovery is beginning.

see:

http://www.tatumllc.com/uploads/perspectives/May%202009%20Commentary%20FINAL.pdf

Bank stress tests lower stress

2009-05-08T14:07:00.000-07:00

Markets broadly have taken the announcements concerning the bank stress tests as a positive sign as the main message is an increase in confidence that the liquidity crisis is under control and well identified.

Other good news:

The job reduction in April was the smallest cut since October. Payrolls fell by 539,000 compared to a 699,000 loss in March indicating hopefully that the largest cuts are behind us.

The TED spread (see the link in the "Indicators to Watch" box below) has fallen to 70 - 80 basis points; another solid indicator that liquidity in credit markets is improving.

Employment losses slowing

2009-05-06T08:42:00.001-07:00

One key leading indicator, which we discussed earlier on this blog, is employment hours; hours tend to increase before the overall economy starts to turn. Preceding an increase in hours is a slowing of job losses. The latest data released for April shows good news in that job losses appear to be slowing.

While the April data showed a continue decline in job losses in the US, economists had expected a much larger decrease. Private-sector job losses hit their lowest since November last year; private employers cut 491,000 jobs in April versus a revised 708,000 lost in March, originally reported as a loss of 742,000 jobs.

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-private-sector-job-losses-rb-15147709.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode

Remember that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. As Bernanke indicated yesterday, we expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise even after we hit the bottom. Economists differ on the extent but a reasonable range is between 9 and 10%.

Bernanke sees positive growth toward the end of 2009

2009-05-05T13:49:00.000-07:00

1. Bernanke sees a slow recovery but the bottom should be toward the end of 2009

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-Economy-should-grow-apf-15140026.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

2. Kraft's earnings exceeded analyst's projections by 5 cents.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601205&sid=aza5Zhd1qGLQ&refer=industries

2. Confidence of US CEOs climbed in April to the highest level in 3 years and indicated a belief that the US and China will lead the world out of the current global recession albeit slowly.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aXBI5Jlo11JI&refer=economy

The positives continue

2009-05-04T08:20:00.000-07:00

1. Pending home sales jumped 3.2% during March from February and the pending sales home index is 1.6% higher than a year ago.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/04/real_estate/March_pending_home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2009050410

2.The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufcturing index rose for the fourth straight month in April indicating that the decline in the manufacturing sector is moderating.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/01/news/economy/ISM_manufacturing_April/index.htm?postversion=2009050111

3. China's manufacturing growth rose in April and remained above 50 for the second consecutive month, signalling expansion in the sector, a hopeful sign that recovery is possibly underway.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25413296-643,00.html

Several indicators show good signs

2009-05-01T07:22:00.000-07:00

On Wednesday, the Conference Board announced that Consumer Confidence soared in April which indicates that consumers are hopeful fopr a better economic environment.

See: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

Other good signs:

Japan's economy may show signs of positive growth as early as this quarter.

See: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=adOceO5bLEPk&refer=economy

Many companies, including Comcast and Procter & Gamble, had positive earnings announcements. These positive surprises, as discussed on this blog below, had a larger impact on the market that the mostly already discounted negative earnings announcements.

The Fed on April 29 decided not to increase its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage securities which is a sign that they believe no more stimulus is needed right now and that the worst of the recession may be over.

Some signs that credit is easing

2009-04-16T16:43:00.000-07:00

A few good signs that credit is flowing more easily:

The Wall Street Journal (4/16/09; p C1) reports that more than $2.7 billion in junk bonds sold easily; junk bonds have risen 9.8% this year. A key element in sustaining the rally in the stock market is the ease with which companies can raise capital. The convertible bond market has seen a strong comeback as shown by heavy demand for offerings by Micron Technology, Alcoa and Ingersoll-Rand.

Also, JPMorgan Chase posted better-than-expected profit in the first-quarter profit; not as good as last year's, but a good sign that banking is not dead. JPMorgan earned $2.14 billion for the January-March period, thanks to both strong trading activity and banking to average consumers. Like other banks, JPMorgan is still seeing its loan defaults increase. The company's credit costs amounted to $10 billion -- that's $6 billion from loan losses, and $4 billion to build up reserves.

For details see: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-Chase-posts-apf-14945653.html

Bernanke sees signs of economic stability:

2009-04-15T16:50:00.000-07:00

"Recently we have seen tentative signs that the sharp decline in economic activity may be slowing, for example, in data on home sales, homebuilding and consumer spending, including sales of new motor vehicles," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery at Morehouse College in Atlanta.

Are we there yet?

2009-04-08T11:25:00.000-07:00

We have recently seen a number of indications that the downturn is slowing and that the bottom of the cycle may be in sight. While these indicators suggest a slowing in the decline of the economy, no one data point is conclusive. Economists tend to look at trends in leading indicators as a way to confirm that the trough in economic activity will occur several months into the future. Right now, some of the positive signs include:

Retails sales declined at a much more modest rate in February while sales at US wholesalers rose.

Wholesale inventories had a record decline in February implying that an increase in demand will result in an increase in orders, production and employment.

Consumer Confidence had a slight rise in March, but is still at a very, very low level.

Job losses, according to some analysts, may have peaked in January.

Home sales are up and inventories of unsold homes are falling.

And of course, the stock market rally, if it holds, is a solid leading economic indicator.

If all these signs are indeed the initial signs of trend movements, then the trough in economic activity would take place in 6 - 9 months; that is, by the end of 2009 or early 2010.

While this news is not conclusive, until the last few weeks, most of the indications from these data were negative.

Check the TED Spread

2009-04-06T15:28:00.000-07:00

Good news: The TED spread has decreased to around 97 basis points down from 135 basis points on Dec 31, 2008. See the link to the right for a complete update.

Available liquidity has also helped lower mortgage rates. This news combined with the latest data that home prices in January witnessed the smallest decline in five months, provide signals that the housing market may be close to a bottom.

California Real Estate Activity Positive

2009-04-03T14:17:00.000-07:00

Sales volume is increasing and inventory is shrinking in the California real estate market. According to the California Association of Realtors, in February 2009 buyers purchased 80% more homes than were purchased in February 2007. One year ago the inventory of existing homes for sale stood at about 15 months; in February the inventory shrank to just 6.5 months, which many folks believe is about normal. The national average according to the National Association of Realtors is about 9.7 months.

For more detail, see:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/26/real_estate/California_comeback/index.htm?postversion=2009040311

Manufacturing in China Expands for First Time in 6 months

2009-04-02T12:25:00.000-07:00

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in six months, likely triggered by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.4 in March from 49 in February, as reported by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in Beijing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

For more detail see:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aG0LvTe.Q9PA&refer=economy

Manufacturing Orders Rise and Inventories Fall

2009-04-02T11:01:00.000-07:00

April 2, 2009: Good news: A combination of reports from the US Census Bureau--a rise in manufacturing orders and a reduction in inventories--bodes well for a pick up in economic activity. With lowered inventories, new orders will be need to be increasingly filled by increasing production with eventual increases in employment.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured goods in February rose following six consecutive monthly decreases. The February increase followed a 3.5 percent January decrease.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $3.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $336.1 billion, revised from the previously published 0.9 percent decrease. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease.

Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down six consecutive months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $193.5 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent January decrease.

For more details see:

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

Manufacturing Shrinks at Slower Pace

2009-04-01T11:36:00.000-07:00

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 36.3 in March, a third consecutive increase, providing an indication of less downward pressure on manufacturing.

For details see:

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOPu6frx0D30&refer=home

Baltic Dry Index

2009-03-30T17:08:00.000-07:00

Another leading indicator, suggested by John Chamberlin, Director, Private Wealth Management at Deutsche Bank National Trust Company, is the Baltic Dry Index which measures the volume of commodities being shipped around the world. The index had been rising in the early part of the year but has recently leveled off. The index rises as commodity demand grows which indicates an increase in economic activity. The link can be found on Bloomberg at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11

A recent chart:

Welcome! Some Indicators to Watch

2009-03-25T11:33:00.000-07:00

Welcome! This blog is intended for anyone who is tired of turning on the news and hearing almost exclusively about negative data announcements followed by pessimistic commentary.

Some of the best advice anyone can follow right now is “shut off the TV and stop listening to the news.” There is in fact good economic news but it is generally not possible to hear the positives against the backdrop of many negative reports and negative interpretations of good news by the media. On this blog you will find some factual counterbalance to this overwhelmingly negative news in the media. Hopefully these positives will provide some comfort here in the midst of many depressing reports.

To help highlight some positive economic news, at least once each week, I will post some of the good news about the economy that has taken place during the week. You are welcome to contribute good news items on the blog at any time.

In addition, the blog will include indicators that you can track that generally provide signs that a turn in the economy, in this case, a recovery, is on the way.

Thanks for reading and I invite you to join in the discussion.

Regards,

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When will it end?

Right now, the main question on everyone’s mind is when will the economy start to recover? As John Kenneth Galbraith was fond of saying: “We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.” At this point, no one really knows when a turn around will occur. Still, a number of key indicators are identified below that can provide signals that the economy is on the way to healing.

1. INDICATORS TO WATCH:

Housing Inventories: A key factor that has and continues to depress the financial sector is the significant decline in housing prices. A necessary step in the recovery of the financial sector is price stabilization in housing markets. The recent record high inventory of unsold homes on the market has placed continued downward pressure on housing prices. Once this inventory falls to more normal levels prices should stabilize. Foreclosures and new residential construction add inventory to the market, while existing home sales reduce inventories. Thus, keep an eye on each of these series.

Good News: Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 2.7 percent. There is a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace. Even while foreclosures continue to rise, the number of homes on the market has declined steadily since peaking in July 2008, and inventory is at the lowest level in two years.

For more detail see: http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/02/january_ehs_inventory

Good News: February new home sales climbed for the first time in seven months and at the end of February showed a drop from January in the estimated number of homes for sale.

For more details see:
Wall Street Journal March 25, 2009 or if you subscribe online:
http://online.wsj.com/home-page?mg=com-wsj

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The TED Spread: The TED spread (the name TED derives from Treasury Eurodollar) measures the gap between the 3 month borrowing rates that banks and the government pay. The rates in the calculation are the London Interbank Overnight Rate (3 month LIBOR) and the 3 month T-Bill rate. Theoretically, the T-Bill rate is a riskless rate. An increase in the LIBOR relative to the risk free rate signals a reluctance of banks to lend to one another without a high premium.

Many analysts watch movements in the TED spread to indicate how well credit markets are functioning. Historically, from, 2002-2006 the average TED spread was 27 basis points (.27%). In November 2008, when credit markets essentially froze, the TED spread rose to almost 350 basis points.

Good News: The Federal Reserve System intervened in commercial paper markets in late 2008 at which point the TED spread fell and has recently stayed between around 95 and 110 basis points, still above its historical level but much healthier than in previous months.

You can follow the TED spread at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND

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The Leading Economic Index (LEI): The LEI is published by the Conference Board which is a non-government group. The index includes 10 measures that provide an indication of future turns in the economy. While the LEI has correctly forecasted all the recessions from 1959-2001, it is not infallible since it also forecast several recessions that did not occur. Still a change in the trend movement in the LEI implies that there is an increased probability of a future turn in the economy. In July 2007, the index began a decline which continued throughout 2007. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession officially began in December 2007.

Keep an eye on movements in the index; three consecutive months of increases in the index would provide a signal that the bottom is in sight.

Some good news is that the LEI had a slight decline in December 2008, then rose in January 2009 followed by a slight decline in February. While the LEI has had a downward tend since July 20076, its rate of decline has moderated in recent months.

For details see:
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1

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Employment Hours: Employment hours generally lead overall activity because as new orders are anticipated or are received by companies, typically the first response is for businesses to increase hours of current employees before hiring new employees. Thus employment hours usually lead the cycle while the unemployment rate, which is based on the number of people employed or unemployed, lags the cycle. To follow the index of aggregate weekly hours see:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=CES0500000034&output_view=net_1mth

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2. GOOD NEWS FROM COMPANIES:

(1) March 5, 2009: Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer reported unexpectedly strong sales. U.S. same-store sales increased 5.1% compared to February 2008, not counting fuel sales. Wal-Mart increased its annual dividend by 15%. For details see:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/06/news/companies/delevingne.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009030612

(2) March 9, 2009: McDonald’s same store sales rose 1.4% globally and 2.8% in the US.
For details see:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/09/news/companies/mcdonalds.reut/index.htm

(3) March 11, 2009: AT&T will add 3,000 jobs in response to increased demand for wireless, broadband and radio.
For details see:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/10/news/economy/att_adds_jobs/index.htm

(4) March 11, 2009: Citigroup was profitable in January and February

(5) March 12, 2009: Kroger reported 8% rise in profits in latest quarter due to increased supermarket sales.
For details see:
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/mar/11/1b11earns22724-kroger-profits-rise-8-strong-brand-/?zIndex=65005

(6) March 20, 2009: Corning Inc expects to be profitable this quarter due to a partial rebound in the global demand for LCD TVs which utilize Corning’s products.
For details see: Wall Street Journal March 20, 2009 p B6 or if you subscribe online: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123747454331585167.html

(7) March 20, 2009: 3Com will enjoy its third straight quarter of profitability sue to cost cutting and increased shares in China.
For details see: Wall Street Journal March 20, 2009 p B6 or if you subscribe online:
http://online.wsj.com/public/search/page/3_0466.html?KEYWORDS=3Com%20boosts%20profitability&mod=DNH_S

(8) March 12, 2009: Bank of America Expects 2009 Profit After Gain in First Months
Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank, had a profit during the first two months of 2009 and expects to make money for the full year, Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said.
For details see:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=a6wOL6o84Y0g&refer=finance

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3. GOOD NEWS FROM OTHER ECONOMIES

March 9, 2009: China to Gradually Ease Export-Related Taxes to Zero

A persistent fear of economic analysts during a global downturn is that economies will adopt protectionist policies that limit global trade and cause further decreases in global trade, production and employment. Protectionist policies were a factor contributing to the depths of the Great Depression. This week, China announced that it will steadily cut export-related taxes to "zero" and raise financial support for exporters to avert another sharp drop in external demand, the commerce minister said in an interview published Monday.

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4. OTHER POSITIVE SIGNS:

Consumer Spending Appears to be Stabilizing

March 13, 2009: The Commerce Department reported that sales at retail and food service outlets dipped only .1% in February following a 1.8% gain in January. The report suggests that the steep declines experienced last year are winding down and perhaps stabilized and even increased spending may be on the horizon.
See Wall Street Journal March 13, 2009: p A2.

California Home Sales Jump

February 26, 2009: Existing, single-family home sales increased in January to a seasonally adjusted rate of 624,940, according to the California Association of Realtors. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index was 6.7 months in January, compared with 16.6 months in January 2008The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 49.9 days in January 2009, compared with 70.8 days in January 2008.
See http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2009/02/california_home.html